With Andy Burnham the likely successor to Sir Keir Starmer, here are my personal thoughts on the direction tax policy might take.

The position he would inherit

Whoever takes office will inherit a delicate set of arithmetic. The overall tax burden is already approaching its highest level since the 1940s, and is forecast to edge higher still as frozen thresholds quietly draw more income into the higher bands. At the same time, Mr Burnham has indicated that he would protect the taxes most households feel directly, suggesting he would not raise the headline rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT, and would keep the pension triple lock in place. My sense is that this leaves a familiar tension: real pressure on the public finances, set against a clear wish not to reach into ordinary pay packets.

Where revenue might be sought

If the most visible levers are set to one side, it seems reasonable to expect more attention on wealth and assets. Among the ideas being discussed are a higher rate of capital gains tax on shares, investments and second properties; the prospect of landlords paying National Insurance on rental income; a long-overdue revaluation of council tax bands, which in England still rest on 1991 values, or even a land value tax; and the possibility of inheritance tax being reshaped around the funding of social care. I would stress that none of this is settled. It is, at most, a direction one might infer: a gentle shift away from taxing what people earn and towards taxing what they own.

The more delicate question

There is, however, a subtlety that I think deserves emphasis. Taxing wealth more heavily is rarely as straightforward as it first appears. If capital gains tax were raised too far, the Treasury could conceivably collect less rather than more, because people tend to adjust when and how they realise gains, and some may choose to arrange their affairs elsewhere. Respected commentators have made much the same point, cautioning that placing ever more of the burden on a relatively small group carries its own risks, and that thoughtful reform tends to serve better than a simple increase in rates. For internationally mobile readers, this is not a distant debate; it speaks directly to the very behaviour any future chancellor would be trying to anticipate.

At a glance

| Area | What is being discussed | Who it might affect | |---|---|---| | Capital gains tax | A higher rate, or a wider reform touching sales, emigration and gains on death | Investors, second-home owners, non-residents | | Property and council tax | Revaluation of 1991 bands, perhaps a land value tax | Owners of higher-value UK homes | | Landlords | National Insurance on rental income | UK landlords, including those living abroad | | Inheritance tax | A possible reshaping around social care | Families with cross-border estates |

A particular word for those abroad

For our expat and internationally mobile clients, a few of these threads feel more pertinent than others. A higher rate of capital gains tax would touch non-residents selling UK property and those holding UK investments. Increased income tax rates for property income already would add to the cost of being a UK landlord from overseas. To add, any change to inheritance tax would matter especially where an estate spans more than one country, coming as it would, on top of the non-domicile reforms already in place. I do not think any of this warrants haste, but it does, in my view, make a periodic review of how UK assets are held a wise and reassuring habit.

My own conclusion

For the moment, this remains a leadership contest rather than a Budget, and I would caution against reading too much into any single remark. There are fair arguments on both sides: that shifting tax towards wealth and property is the more equitable course, and that, handled poorly, it can in time reach ordinary homeowners and dampen investment. Mr Burnham has been at pains to say he would respect the existing fiscal rules, which to my mind points to evolution rather than upheaval. We will only truly know once there is a new prime minister, a chancellor and a Budget to read. Until then, these are simply my own reflections, and I would be glad to discuss what any of it might mean for your particular circumstances.

These are the personal views and reflections of the author and do not constitute personal tax or political advice, nor a statement of Expat UK Tax's position on any party or candidate. They draw on reporting by the Financial Times, BBC, Sky News and The Guardian as at June 2026, and none of the measures discussed are confirmed government policy. Please seek advice tailored to your own circumstances before acting.

A New Prime Minister and Your Tax: Some Early Reflections